ENGLISH ARTICLES

Aids 2

Introduction

The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS

More than 60 million people have been infected with HIV since the epidemic began two decades ago. In 2001, it claimed an estimated 3 million lives.

In the 45 most affected countries, it is projected that, between 2000 and 2020, 68 million people will die prematurely as a result of AIDS. The projected toll is greatest in sub-Saharan Africa where 55 million additional deaths can be expected.

In many countries, AIDS is erasing decades of progress in life expectancy. The average life expectancy in sub-Saharan Africa is currently 47 years. Without AIDS, it would have been 62 years. Life expectancy at birth in Botswana (which, at 38.8%, has the highest adult prevalence rate in the world) has dropped below 40 years-a level not seen in that country since before 1950.

Children and young people are especially hard-hit by the epidemic. The under-five mortality rates of seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa have increased by 20-40%, due to HIV/AIDS. The number of excess AIDS-related deaths among South Africans aged 15-34 is projected to peak in 2010-2015, with an estimated 17 times as many deaths as there would have been in the absence of AIDS.

Current HIV prevalence levels only hint at the much greater lifetime probability of becoming infected. In Lesotho, for example, it is estimated that a person who turned 15 in 2000 has a 74% chance of becoming infected with HIV by his or her 50th birthday. Even in Guyana, where adult prevalence is a comparatively low 2.7%, the probability of contracting HIV between the ages of 15 and 50 in 2000-2035 is 19%.
Meeting the Need: Bridging the gap

US$7-10 billion is required annually to implement effective prevention and care programmes in low- and middle-income countries. If the epidemic is to be reversed, this level of investment should be spent on HIV/AIDS prevention, care and support, and should be maintained for at least a decade. If expenditures on AIDS were to remain at current levels, the funding shortfall would grow to at least US$7 billion by 2005.

HIV/AIDS marks a severe development crisis in sub-Saharan Africa, the worst-affected region in the world. Even if exceptionally effective prevention, treatment and care programmes take hold immediately, the scale of the epidemic means that the human and socioeconomic toll will remain massive for many generations.

Sub-Saharan Africa

HIV/AIDS marks a severe development crisis in sub-Saharan Africa, the worst-affected region in the world. Even if exceptionally effective prevention, treatment and care programmes take hold immediately, the scale of the epidemic means that the human and socioeconomic toll will remain massive for many generations.

Approximately 3.5 million Africans became infected in 2001, bringing the total number of adults and children living with HIV/AIDS in this region to 28.5 million. The estimated number of children orphaned by AIDS living in the region is 11 million.

Some 2.2 million Africans died of AIDS in 2001. It is projected that, between 2000 and 2020, 55 million Africans will die earlier than they would have in the absence of AIDS.

Orphans and children in a world of AIDS

The AIDS epidemic has orphaned millions of children. Even if prevention campaigns become hugely successful and HIV infections drop dramatically, most people already infected with HIV are expected to succumb to AIDS-related illnesses. Millions more children will lose one or both parents over the next ten years.

The statistics that measure the plight of children and orphans affected by the AIDS epidemic are chilling.

AIDS has orphaned at least 10.4 million children currently under 15 (that is, they have lost their mother or both parents to the epidemic). The total number of children orphaned by the epidemic since it began—13.2 million—is forecast to more than double by 2010.

AIDS-related deaths caused some 2.3 million children to become orphans (at the rate of 1 every 14 seconds) in 2000. UNICEF estimates that up to a third of those children were less than five years old.
HIV/AIDS and Development

By killing so many people in the prime of their lives, AIDS poses a serious threat to development. By reducing growth, weakening governance, destroying human capital, discouraging investment and eroding productivity, AIDS undermines countries’ efforts to reduce poverty and improve living standards.

Impact on economies and poverty

AIDS has a profound impact on growth, income and poverty. It is estimated that the annual per capita growth in half the countries of sub-Saharan Africa is falling by 0.5-1.2% as a direct result of AIDS. By 2010, per capita GDP in some of the hardest hit countries may drop by 8% and per capita consumption may fall even farther.

People at all income levels are vulnerable to the economic impact of HIV, but the poor suffer most acutely. AIDS pushes people deeper into poverty as households lose their breadwinners to AIDS, livelihoods are compromised, and savings are consumed by the cost of health care and funerals. In some countries, conservative estimates indicate that the number of people living in poverty has already increased by 5% as a result of the epidemic. This is jeopardizing efforts to reach the Millennium Summit goal of halving the proportion of people living in extreme poverty by 2015.

With less access to jobs, health care and other services, impoverished people are more likely to resort to commercial sex and other survival strategies that put them at risk of contracting HIV, thus creating a vicious cycle.

Gender and HIV/AIDS

Gender roles and relations powerfully influence the course and impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Gender-related factors shape the extent to which men, women, boys and girls are vulnerable to HIV infection, the ways in which AIDS affects them, and the kinds of responses that are feasible in different communities and societies.

Gender inequalities are a major driving force behind the AIDS epidemic. The different attributes and roles societies assign to males and females profoundly affect their ability to protect themselves against HIV/AIDS and cope with its impact. Reversing the spread of HIV therefore demands that women’s rights are realized and that women are empowered in all spheres of life.